Middletown, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS61 KILN 140130
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
930 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will oscillate across the area keeping the threat
for showers and storms in the forecast through the week. A
seasonably warm and humid pattern to continue through the week as
well. The active pattern toward the end of the week may bring
the potential for episodes of heavy rain and flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Increased precipitation chances and added heavy rain wording across
some areas overnight with a system moving across the area. Although
there will be some decrease in intensity of the precipitation across
some areas this evening, expect additional development of convection
overnight and into the day on Monday. There is some concern that a
west to east orientation of heavy rain along with slow moving storms
will lead to a flash flooding concern. There is some uncertainty in
where the corridor of heaviest rainfall will occur and therefore
held off on a flood watch for now. Greatest concern is near the Ohio
River to a few counties north of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level shortwave trof axis and ongoing convection across the area
at sunrise Monday. A very moist environment to exist with PWat
values approaching 2 inches.  Although primary shortwave shifts off
to the east thru the morning but an elongated hang back trof keeps
shower and thunderstorm threat thru the afternoon and into evening.
The best coverage looks to be across the south.

Additional threat of heavy rain and localized flooding can be
expected. Highs on Monday are expected in the lower and middle 80s
with lows Monday night in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The longwave pattern on Tuesday has a ridge centered over the
eastern United States with a low-amplitude trough across the west.
Weak shortwave energy will continue to ripple from west to east from
the trough into the ridge, while a stronger piece of energy
traverses across the northern tier. With slightly drier air and weak
forcing over the middle Ohio Valley on Tuesday, showers and storms
will remain isolated.

The stronger shortwave will begin to flatten the eastern ridge on
Wednesday and Thursday. Low-level flow will pick up some and become
southwesterly, with moisture and instability increasing. Convective
details are still uncertain at this range; but overall, forcing
appears weak so despite pretty high coverage of showers and storms,
the activity may remain disorganized.

By Friday, a cold front looks to be dropping slowly south into the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide a focus for
storms along and ahead of the front. Guidance shows this front
dropping to our south for next weekend. If this occurs, we may quiet
weather for a couple of days at that time.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be west of the TAF sites to start the
TAF period. Expect them to move across the region overnight and at
times through early afternoon on Monday before beginning to taper off
and move out of the region. Cigs will lower overnight and vsbys will
be reduced at times with some of the precipitation. Outside of
thunderstorms winds are not expected to be more than 10 knots,
however cannot rule out brief wind gusts with some of the
thunderstorm activity.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...