Middletown, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXUS61 KILN 111005
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
605 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions persist through the entire forecast period.
Increased afternoon shower and storm activity returns to the
forecast Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The western extent of a surface high over east coast continues to
reach into the Ohio Valley today. This synoptic setup will keep
weak southwesterly winds in place along with hot, humid conditions.
Shower and storm chances remain fairly low this afternoon, but
higher than yesterday as the upper level ridging slowly breaks down.
An isolated pocket or two of heavy rain is possible into the
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Any diurnal cumulus and afternoon storms fade away after sunset as
has been the trend the past few days. Lows drop to near 70 under
mostly clear skies. Patchy river valley fog is possible.

For Tuesday, the surface high over the east coast finally losses
influence over the area as upper level troughing noses in from the
west. Storm chances are higher than the past few days by Tuesday
afternoon with more forcing and higher PWATs being modeled. Isolated
pockets of heavy rain are possible. Additionally, a few strong wind
gusts are possible since DCAPEs are likely to reach above 800+ J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short wave will pass across the lower Great Lakes early in the
period. This will result in some marginal shear brushing across
northern counties Tuesday night. While instability will have waned
by that time, some showers and storms will persist into the night
before finally diminishing. Weak cold front will then cross the area
on Wednesday with renewed convection developing out ahead of it, but
at that point the area will be back into a very weak shear
environment.

Very shallow west northwest mid level flow will occur through the
rest of the week until ridging builds back into the Ohio Valley. At
the surface, a high pressure center will pass well north of the area
in the wake of the front bringing a brief decrease in temperatures
and dew points. But once the high center moves east, southerly flow
will return, resulting in an airmass similar to that which preceded
the midweek front. There will once again be the potential for
isolated diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period outside of any
isolates shower/storm activity. The only exception may occur at KLUK
where river valley fog is possible around sunrise today and once
again Tuesday morning. For the rest of today, diurnal VFR cumulus is
expected. Some sites may experience a brief shower or thunderstorm in
the afternoon, but probabilities remains too low for PROB30.

Light southerly flow remains in place through 1200z. Southwesterly
winds increase to 5-10 knots during the day. Winds relax back below
5 knots once again after 0000z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Campbell